How long will El Niño last?
El Niño is zipping along in the tropical Pacific. There's a 54% chance that this El Niño event will end up “historically strong” (more details below), potentially ranking in the top 5 on record. Looking ahead, it's likely that El Niño will end and neutral conditions return by April–June.
What to expect from El Niño 2023?
Currently, forecasters estimate a greater than 55% chance that El Niño will remain above that threshold for strong through January–March 2024. There's about a 1-in-3 chance that the Oceanic Niño Index will reach 2.0 °C, which has happened four times before in our 73-year record: 1972-73, 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16.
What is the prediction for 2023-2024 winter?
For December 2023–February 2024, warmer-than-average temperatures are favored in Alaska and the West Coast into the Northern Great Plains and Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic Coast from northern North Carolina to Maine.
How can El Niño be stopped?
There is nothing we can do to stop El Niño and La Niña events from occurring. The year-to-year oscillations between normal, warm, and cold conditions in the tropical Pacific associated with the ENSO cycle involve massive redistributions of upper ocean heat.
Will 2024 be hotter than 2023?
"If things follow the normal pattern, 2024 should be a bit hotter than 2023. But 'the normal pattern' may not exist anymore," said Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University. "In any event, it's certainly going to be one of the hottest years in the record."
What El Niño will do to Earth in 2024?
Geneva, 8 November (WMO) - The ongoing El Niño event is expected to last at least until April 2024, influencing weather patterns and contributing to a further spike in temperatures both on land and in the ocean, according to a new Update from the World Meteorological Organization.
What are 5 effects of El Niño?
El Niño has an impact on ocean temperatures, the speed and strength of ocean currents, the health of coastal fisheries, and local weather from Australia to South America and beyond. El Niño events occur irregularly at two- to seven-year intervals.
Will 2023 be the hottest year?
Though temperature records from December have yet to be finalized, climate scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have found there's a more than 99% chance that 2023 will have the hottest recorded global average temperature, beating out 2016, the previous leader.
Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?
As 2023 draws to a close, it's going out on top. "It's looking virtually certain at this point that 2023 will be the hottest year on record," said Zeke Hausfather, climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, a non-profit that analyzes climate trends.
Does El Niño mean a bad winter?
During an El Nino pattern, winter means the chances for warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern states increase, while conditions in the Northeast will be wetter than in the West and Midwest, Ganguly says.
When was the last El Niño winter?
The last time we saw El Niño was in the winter of 2018 to 2019, and even that year's El Niño was substantially weaker than the one we're seeing now. During an El Niño winter, the southern third to half of the United States, including California, tends to see wetter weather.
Will El Niño bring more snow?
You do see some extra snow during El Niño winters in the mountainous regions of the West, like the Sierra Nevada mountain in California and the southern part of the Rocky Mountains.
What 4 things does El Niño impact?
El Niño and La Niña can both have global impacts on weather, wildfires, ecosystems, and economies. Episodes of El Niño and La Niña typically last nine to 12 months, but can sometimes last for years.
What weakens in an El Niño?
During El Niño
Meanwhile, the trade winds (that typically blow along the equator from the east-to-west) weaken because they normally blow from areas of sinking motion to areas of rising motion--now those areas are reduced relative to the normal state.
What does a strong El Niño mean?
During strong El Nino events, average winter temperature favors warmer than normal conditions across the northern tier of most of the nation and colder than normal conditions over most of the southern states (see image bottom right).
Is El Niño in 2023 or 2024?
The El Niño developed rapidly during July-August, and reached moderate strength by September, 2023 and is likely to peak as a strong event in November - January 2024. There is a 90% likelihood it will persist throughout the upcoming northern hemisphere winter/southern hemisphere summer.
Will El Niño make winter colder?
Despite the strong El Niño influence, which would typically bring cooler temperatures to the region, forecasters believe there is an equal chance that temperatures will be above or below average.
Will winter 2023 be El Niño?
Following the description in Emily's post, we consider El Niño to be strong when the Oceanic Niño Index for the season exceeds 1.5° C. As of CPC's November ENSO forecast update, the probability that the Oceanic Niño Index will exceed 1.5° C for December – February 2023/24 is 73%.
Does El Niño mean hotter summer?
Ever since NOAA declared El Niño to be officially underway in June 2023, people have been asking us what it would mean for summer heat. For most of the United States, the short answer has been “probably very little.” Or as the experts put it, El Niño doesn't have a strong summer climate signal for most of the country.
How strong will El Niño be this year?
December 2023 El Niño update: adventure!
There's a 54% chance this El Nino, currently strong, will peak as a "historically strong" event.
Is El Niño wet or dry?
El Niño causes the Pacific jet stream to move south and spread further east. During winter, this leads to wetter conditions than usual in the Southern U.S. and warmer and drier conditions in the North. El Niño also has a strong effect on marine life off the Pacific coast.
References
- https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-expected-last-least-until-april-2024
- https://news.northeastern.edu/2023/10/12/el-nino-winter/
- https://www.npr.org/2023/12/28/1221827923/2023-hottest-year-record-climate-change
- https://thehill.com/homenews/nexstar_media_wire/4313198-its-the-first-el-nino-winter-in-5-years-what-will-be-different/
- https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/faq
- https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/miscNEWS/ENSO_CPC_Presentation.pdf
- https://www.axios.com/2023/12/28/climate-change-extreme-heat-outlook
- https://reliefweb.int/report/world/el-nino-expected-last-least-until-april-2024-enarruzh
- https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html
- https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/el-nino/
- https://thehill.com/homenews/nexstar_media_wire/4283880-strong-el-nino-winter-coming-heres-where-we-could-see-more-snow/
- https://www.hhs.gov/climate-change-health-equity-environmental-justice/climate-change-health-equity/climate-health-outlook/winter-weather/index.html
- https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/november-2023-el-nino-update-transport-options
- https://www.climate.gov/enso
- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/us/winter-us-weather-el-nino.html
- https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/how-does-el-nino-influence-winter-precipitation-over-united-states
- https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/historically-how-has-el-nino-influenced-summer-temperature-and
- https://kjzz.org/content/1866862/2023-will-be-hottest-year-record-how-its-going-be-now
- https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/rise-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a
